War Gear: Banners

Upgrades that apply to multiple or all Armies

Moderators: Rangers, Leaders

User avatar
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1040
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:15 am

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:38 am

Interesting chart. But what happens when the orc fights 2 hobbits or 4 goblins? Won't the odds change when the horde brings its numbers to bare?


Yes, the numbers change; the more dice a side has in a fight, the more likely that side is to win.

However, what remains absolutely constant is that higher fight skill always gains more from having more dice (eg Banners) than the lower fight skill side.

To answer your specific examples:

2 Orcs vs 1 Hobbit: Orcs win 74.54%
2 Hobbit vs 1 Orc: Hobbits win 57.87%

3 Orcs vs 1 Hobbit: Orcs win 82.64%
3 Hobbit vs 1 Orc: Hobbits win 65.97%

4 Orcs vs 1 Hobbit: Orcs win 87.41%
4 Hobbit vs 1 Orc: Hobbits win 70.74%


*note that you can substitute '2 Hobbits' for '1 Hobbit with a banner reroll'.

What this shows is that while any fighter in the game benefits from having support, banners and rerolls, the lower fight warriors benefit much less.
While access to banners might be a welcome addition due to the scenario that scores based on them, banners are not a power-gaming choice for low fight armies, and are unlikely to upset balance.

User avatar
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1040
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:15 am

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:39 am

(Fun fact: A 'shielding' orc has a 30.56% chance to win vs 1,000 hobbits with a banner :D)

User avatar
Villager
 
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:05 pm

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:01 am

This thread just got real interesting. Moar Numbas! I am interested in things like elf with spear vs Isengard with pikes. And 2 handed weapons.

(Fun fact: A 'shielding' orc has a 30.56% chance to win vs 1,000 hobbits with a banner :D)


Not 33% because it has 2 dice to score sixes?

edit never mind, I remembered how that works. yours is correct. :oops:

User avatar
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1040
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:15 am

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:06 am

Sure, here are some more numbers. I should probably spin this off into a thread of its own, but since it is relevant to the discussion about the balance effect of low fight models getting banners I'll leave it here for now :D



Some other common combats


I am using Elves and Uruk in these examples because they are commonly known models likely to fight with a supported front line. You can substiture 'ELF' for anything with Higher Fight and 'URUK' for anything with lower.

1 Elf vs 1 Uruk: Elf wins 58.33%

1 Elf vs 2 Uruk: Elf wins 42.13%

1 Elf vs 3 Uruk: Elf wins 34%



2 Elves vs 1 Uruk: Elves win 74.54%

2 Elves vs 2 Uruk: Elves win 61.03%

2 Elves vs 3 Uruk: Elves win 52.84%


2 Elves+Banner vs 1 Uruk: Elves win 82.64%

2 Elves+Banner vs 2 Uruk: Elves win 71.93%

2 Elves+Banner vs 3 Uruk: Elves win 64.77%


In practice:


[] Higher fight models benefit much more from additional dice and rerolls. For example while 3 Uruks vs 1 Elf win about 66% of combats, 3 Elves vs 1 Uruk win about 82.6%.
[] When fighting lower Fight enemies, you want the minimum amount of combats with as many dice in each as possible; it is MUCH better for you to have supported front lines clash even if the enemy are also getting extra dice.
[] When fighting higher Fight enemies, all other things being equal* you want the maximum amount of combats with as few dice in each as possible; it is better for you to have lots of individual fights even if it means you're also not getting support dice as long as your higher fight enemy is also missing out.
If 3 of your Uruk-hai are fighting 3 Elves one on one, you have a 41.66% chance of winning each combat.
If 3 of your Uruk-hai are fighting 3 Elves in just one combat, you have a 35.33% of winning the combat.

*"All other things being equal" - the main concern would be armour. If your support dice come from D5 pikemen, when fighting S3 enemies you are probably still better off fighting 3v3 if your front line would be better armoured. You will win less combats, but also be harder to wound.
These numbers are useful and it's great to know the odds, but on the battlefield you'll have to make decisions based on more than numbers in a vacuum.

User avatar
Villager
 
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:05 pm

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:05 am

Very interesting. I am going to have to factor this in to how and when I use axes when I play Dwarfs. Usually, I just turn on Piercing Strike and leave it on until everyone is dead. Maybe I should do that in the fights we're more likely to win. :)

User avatar
Villager
 
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:05 pm

Re: War Gear: Banners

Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:05 am

Very interesting. I am going to have to factor this in to how and when I use axes when I play Dwarfs. I just turn on Piercing Strike and leave it on until everyone is dead. Maybe I should do that in the fights we're more likely to win. :)

Villager
 
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2015 5:42 pm

Re: War Gear: Banners

Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:01 am

I think you are putting more faith in these statistics and odds then is prudent. In my experience I have seen no reason to support giving Goblin Town, the Shire, survives of lake town or Moria a banner. That they would need one to be more competitive is something I completely disagree with. It is my opinion that the armies in question are in possession of advantages in other scenarios, as well as in other aspects of To the Death that mitigate their lack of banners. I do not, nor I'm I like to ever, think otherwise on this matter. You will do as you wish on this I have no doubt as this is your project and I guess will we just have to leave it at that.

User avatar
Villager
 
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:05 pm

Re: War Gear: Banners

Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:06 am

I think that banners don't do much for hobbits and goblins, and the numbers show that they don't get a larger benefit from them. That's all well and good.
I also don't think I'd bother to take them. Just being honest, it makes a 4 pt hobbit cost 29pts and he still dies like a fly and his pal who rerolled also dies like a fly, so adding them to the list might be more trouble than it is worth.

User avatar
Site Admin
 
Posts: 1040
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:15 am

Re: War Gear: Banners

Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:32 am

The way lower fight models gain less from rerolls is still the case, so I don't think it creates much of a balance issue. However I discussed this with some of the other people most involved in the project and the banners were dropped in the update.

Since the goal is to make a tournament-friendly list of profiles that most opponents are happy to play against, the gain in the scenario that scores based on banners isn't sufficient justification.

I do not, nor I'm I like to ever, think otherwise on this matter. You will do as you wish on this I have no doubt as this is your project and I guess will we just have to leave it at that.


No problem, your input is appreciated :D

User avatar
Squire
 
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:27 am

Re: War Gear: Banners

Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:01 pm

I am happy with this conclusion. I don't think it is that big a deal anyway, and it's easy to ally a banner in if you really need one. Just make a very short man of minas tirith ;)
I would rather share one lifetime with you than face all the ages of this world alone.

PreviousNext
Return to Universal Upgrades - Unreleased Profiles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest